Tagged: 2012

Oscar 2012: Final Predictions

With less than a week until the announcement of Oscar nominations, I figured I’d drop a post with some of my predictions. This year in particular is more trickier than in years past in terms of determining who’s getting in and who isn’t, and nominations are near and dear to me because they’re usually the only time when major surprises happen (winners of the actual Oscars aren’t surprising to me anymore, thanks Golden Globes/SAGs/BAFTAs/Critic’s Choice). So here goes!

Picture
Les-Miserables-45
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I don’t know. Just throwing the names out there that feel like they’re most likely to be nominated. I haven’t seen about half of them, but the half I have seen have been simply alright.

Director
kathryn-bigelow-dirige-zero-dark-thirty-371
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Affleck, Bigelow, and Spielberg feel like locks to me. Lee just seems like something that should happen. And I’m just throwing Russell out there because I don’t think Tarantino and Hooper are good enough for noms this time around.

Actor
Lincoln-Daniel-Day-Lewis-1
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Kicking off the first of the difficult-to-predict acting categories is Best Actor. Day-Lewis is as good as locked for a nomination. I cannot envision Jackman not getting a nomination. I also can’t really envision Phoenix getting snubbed for some reason…it’s just such a big, powerful performance and so hard to ignore, regardless if SAG did. I can however, completely see scenarios where Washington or Hawkes or Bradley Cooper would be snubbed…and whether I like it or not, I think in the end Cooper is going to get too young and too pretty snub as did Ryan Gosling and Michael Fassbender did in the last two years. But I’m not confident at all.

Actress
Rust-Bone
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

With Chastain and Lawrence locked, I think Cotillard and Watts have enough support to squeeze in. That leaves Mirren…whose film and performance I don’t think will be strong enough to snag enough #1 votes. Also, seeing as there’s almost always a spot for the first time nominee, I think it comes down to Emmanuelle Riva or Wallis. And I think it’ll be Wallis. Just because it’s even rarer for there to be two foreign language nominees than it is for there to be five previous nominees. Again, not confident about this at all.

Supporting Actor
the-master-paul-thomas-anderson-philip-seymour-hoffman
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

This category was damn hard to predict. I think Arkin will get in regardless of how strong his performance is because Supporting Actor always has spots for the old guy with an average perf. I’m not predicting Bardem because I can’t envision a Bond villain getting a nomination. That leaves the Django boys, and it could really go either way between DiCaprio and Waltz, but I think I’ll settle with DiCaprio. And again, I’m still not certain.

Supporting Actress
The-Sessions-8
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

This is probably my most ambitious set of nominations. Field, Hathaway, and Hunt are pretty much safe. People seem to be doubting Kidman’s chances, and perhaps it’s just wishful thinking on my part, but I have a feeling she’ll get in. As for Ann Dowd…I don’t know. Her story about self-financing her own screeners tugged my heartstrings and I think it’s one of those perfect Cinderella stories to good to pass up. BUT I’M NOT CERTAIN.

So basically I’m completely on-the-fence on about 6 acting slots. Whatever. It’ll all be thrilling come nominations morning!

Best Actress 2012 – it begins!

DBS2%20085%20Rachel%20Weisz%20(Hester%20Collyer)It’s that time of year again! That wonderful 3 month period where the “best” films of the last 12 months are released in a condensed amount of time, and nominations/wins for the best are declared by countless groups from all over the globe. The New York Film Critics Circle was the first prominent group of the bunch, and the most surprising win was bestowed upon Rachel Weisz for her leading performance in Deep Blue Sea. Now color me surprised as I wasn’t expecting Weisz to be a contender for anything this year–she only won because Jennifer Lawrence, Emmanuelle Riva, and Jessica Chastain split the votes–and regardless I predict that she probably won’t win any other major award from here on out, but could she snag that tricky 5th nominee slot? I didn’t pay much attention when she got a spot on The Hollywood Reporter’s Actress Roundtable, and again when she got a mention by Ralph Fiennes on Variety’s Actors on Actors…so perhaps I’m underestimating her?